U.S. Macro Monitor
U.S. Macroeconomic Dashboard
Live tracking of inflation, labor market conditions, monetary policy, and real activity using FRED time-series data.
Current Regime
Mixed Regime
Source
FRED
Last Updated
Sep 1, 2026
Coverage
Macro Monitor
Regime Summary
Current Regime
Mixed Regime
Signals remain mixed across inflation, labor, policy, and growth. Current conditions do not map cleanly into a single dominant regime.
Inflation
3.3%
-0.2 pp
Unemployment
4.1%
-0.1 pp
GDP Growth
1.5%
-0.6 pp
Fed Funds
3.6%
0.0 pp
Manufacturing Activity Monitor
Industrial Production and New Orders
Raw FRED manufacturing indicators shown separately to preserve scale and avoid distortion from mixed-unit comparisons.
Industrial Production
99.3
Manufacturers' New Orders
656,547
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
Manufacturers' New Orders
Labor Market
U.S. Unemployment
Latest
4.1%
Jul 26
Δ MoM
-0.1 pp
Signal
Stable Labor
Labor conditions remain contained, though recent firming in unemployment warrants monitoring.
Prices
U.S. Inflation
Latest
3.3%
Jul 26
Δ MoM
-0.2 pp
Signal
Sticky
Disinflation remains in place, although price pressures have not been fully eliminated.
Monetary Policy
Fed Funds Rate
Latest
3.6%
Jul 26
Δ MoM
0.0 pp
Signal
Tight
Policy remains restrictive in level terms, even as the recent direction appears less hawkish than before.
Output
Real GDP Growth
Latest
1.5%
Q2 26
Δ QoQ
-0.6 pp
Signal
Weak Growth
Growth remains positive, but the latest output print points to weaker underlying momentum.
Desk Interpretation
Macro Assessment
Inflation currently prints at 3.3%, while unemployment stands at 4.1%. The latest mix suggests that disinflation is continuing, and labor market deterioration remains limited rather than disorderly.
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, leaving policy restrictive in level terms. Real GDP growth is 1.5%, and the latest change versus the prior quarter is -0.6 pp. Activity remains positive, but the latest output print points to weaker underlying momentum.
On balance, current conditions are most consistent with a mixed regime regime. The central question from here is whether easing inflation can continue without a broader deterioration in employment and growth conditions.
Market Implications
House View
Rates
Disinflation improves the medium-term rates backdrop and supports a less restrictive policy path, though timing risk remains.
Equities
Equity leadership is likely to narrow as growth momentum softens and macro visibility becomes less uniform.
Credit
Contained labor market stress remains broadly constructive for credit, though slowing growth argues for tighter issuer selection.
Risk Monitor
The main macro risk is that slowing output broadens faster than inflation normalizes, shifting the regime from soft landing toward a more material growth downshift.
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