U.S. Macro Monitor
U.S. Macroeconomic Dashboard
Live tracking of inflation, labor market conditions, monetary policy, and real activity using FRED time-series data.
Current Regime
Inflation Shock
Source
FRED
Last Updated
Oct 18, 2026
Coverage
Macro Monitor
Regime Summary
Current Regime
Inflation Shock
Price pressures remain elevated relative to target, leaving policy under pressure to stay restrictive despite ongoing growth.
Inflation
3.7%
+0.4 pp
Unemployment
4.2%
+0.1 pp
GDP Growth
2.2%
-0.3 pp
Fed Funds
3.8%
+0.1 pp
Manufacturing Activity Monitor
Industrial Production and New Orders
Raw FRED manufacturing indicators shown separately to preserve scale and avoid distortion from mixed-unit comparisons.
Industrial Production
99.4
Manufacturers' New Orders
663,491
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
Manufacturers' New Orders
Labor Market
U.S. Unemployment
Latest
4.2%
Sep 26
Δ MoM
+0.1 pp
Signal
Softening
Labor conditions remain contained, though recent firming in unemployment warrants monitoring.
Prices
U.S. Inflation
Latest
3.7%
Sep 26
Δ MoM
+0.4 pp
Signal
Elevated
Disinflation remains in place, although price pressures have not been fully eliminated.
Monetary Policy
Fed Funds Rate
Latest
3.8%
Sep 26
Δ MoM
+0.1 pp
Signal
Tight
Policy remains restrictive in level terms, even as the recent direction appears less hawkish than before.
Output
Real GDP Growth
Latest
2.2%
Q2 26
Δ QoQ
-0.3 pp
Signal
Healthy Growth
Growth remains positive, but the latest output print points to weaker underlying momentum.
Desk Interpretation
Macro Assessment
Inflation currently prints at 3.7%, while unemployment stands at 4.2%. The latest mix suggests that disinflation is stalling, and labor market deterioration remains more visible.
The federal funds rate is currently 3.75%, leaving policy restrictive in level terms. Real GDP growth is 2.2%, and the latest change versus the prior quarter is -0.3 pp. Activity remains positive, but the latest output print points to weaker underlying momentum.
On balance, current conditions are most consistent with a inflation shock regime. The central question from here is whether easing inflation can continue without a broader deterioration in employment and growth conditions.
Market Implications
House View
Rates
Sticky inflation or firmer growth argues for a higher-for-longer rates profile.
Equities
Equity leadership is likely to narrow as growth momentum softens and macro visibility becomes less uniform.
Credit
Softening labor conditions raise the risk of wider credit dispersion and more defensive positioning.
Risk Monitor
The main macro risk is that slowing output broadens faster than inflation normalizes, shifting the regime from soft landing toward a more material growth downshift.
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